Conservation Challenges
Growth and development is the single greatest threat to the integrity and conservation of the BRBNA's natural resources, working ranches, and recreational values.  Pressures on the BRBNA will stem from the projected increase in the populations of the two adjacent metropolitan regions. The San Francisco Bay Area metropolitan area is expected to increase from its 1997 population of approximately 6.6 million residents to 8.3 million residents in 2020 (26%). The Sacramento metropolitan area is expected to increase during the same time period from 1.8 million residents to 2.7 million residents (50%).  Anticipated growth within the five-county BRBNA region is even more pronounced than that of the state as a whole. The five-county population is expected to increase by approximately 329,000 people by 2020, an increase of 43% over the 2000 population. In contrast, the state population is only projected to grow by 29% during this same time period. The population of the five county region is projected to grow to approximately 836,000 by 2050, a 109% increase from 2000, while the state population is only expected to grow 61% overall during this same time period. The growth is projected to occur through a combination of urban expansion into open space lands and the intensification of development within existing urban areas.

Due in part to the region's rugged terrain and remoteness, the BRBNA has been relatively untouched by the pervasive development that has transformed the San Francisco and Sacramento metropolitan areas and much of California in general. However, growth pressures from the burgeoning regions south, west, and east of the BRBNA pose a real threat to the historic safety valve of geographic isolation.  As these surrounding regions continue to expand, the BRBNA faces a number of conservation challenges including: 1) intensified development within the BRBNA, 2) increasing land values, and 3) increased recreation pressure.

Development within the BRBNA could take several forms – dispersed residences on small lots, large estate development, and isolated residential subdivisions.  The implications of such development are the:

• Loss of habitat and reduction of the region's significant biodiversity;
• Severed wildlife corridors reducing the range that large mammals have to travel and forage;
• Introduction of non-native plants and wildlife that threaten the health of native species;
• Water quality problems resulting from erosion and runoff;
• Fragmentation of working ranchlands; and
• Land use conflicts between new development and working ranches.

Ironically, as new homes and developments are built within the BRBNA, the resource values that attract people are impacted, and land values rise.  Soaring land values make the economics of ranching and farming less sustainable and conservation purchases more difficult.  Proximity to areas where land values are already high, such as Napa and Davis, is particularly enticing to both developers and residents alike, as they hope to expand the housing market within reach of these urban areas.

As the population of the Sacramento Valley and Bay Area regions grows, the demand for recreation opportunities within the BRBNA will increase dramatically.  Absent a regional recreation plan that distributes and promotes recreation in appropriate areas and at appropriate intensities, the region's biodiversity and working ranches could be compromised by over-use and high impact activities.